Accounting for tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession in mountain plant distribution models
AIM: To incorporate changes in alpine land cover (tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession) into species distribution model (SDM) predictions for a selection of 31 high‐elevation plants. LOCATION: Chamonix Valley, French Alps. METHODS: We fit linear mixed effects (LME) models to historical changes in forest and glacier cover and projected these trends forward to align with 21st century IPCC climate scenarios. We used a logistic function to model the probability of plant establishment in glacial forelands zones expected to become ice free between 2008 and 2051–2080.