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In this chapter we use the village household survey data to quantify the effects of the green revolution on farm production, income, and employment; the changes in family income and consumption of farm and nonfarm households; and the changes in the distribution of land. There are four problems with the data set that complicate our task.

North Arcot district which embraces the study region, lies in the northwest of Tamil Nadu state. It is a relatively densely populated region; in 1981 the population density was 357 persons per square kilometer of land. It is also a relatively poor region within India. For example, in 1980/81 the district's net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost was Rs 3,285 million, or Rs 750 (US$95) per capita. This compared with a national average in 1983 of US$260 per capita (World Bank 1986).

In this study we set out to quantify the effects of the green revolution on the North Arcot region, in both the villages and the towns. For this task we had available a unique set of data obtained from household surveys undertaken in 1973/74, 1982/83, and 1983/84, which together span an era of change in the region's paddy technology.

In a predominantly agrarian region, development of the nonfarm economy is materially affected by the development of the agricultural sector. Agriculture supplies food, raw materials, and surplus labor for agro-industry. Agriculture also supplies the financial resources necessary to the organization of nonfarm firms. These resources can be mobilized through the terms of trade, through the savings and investments of both farmers and agricultural traders, and through direct and indirect taxation. Furthermore, demand from the agricultural sector stimulates nonfarm activity.

This chapter uses an estimated social accounting matrix (SAM) to provide a detailed quantitative description of the North Arcot study region in 1982/83. The SAM framework provides a consistent, comprehensive, and detailed picture of the transactions in an economy. Production activities, commodities, factors, government, households, and other institutions can all be accommodated, and the pattern in which incomes are distributed takes its place alongside the sources of income generation.

Technological change, such as the replacement of traditional with modern crop varieties and introduction of irrigation, has been effective in increasing the yields and production of various crops— notably rice and wheat—as well as incomes of farmers in developing countries (Pinstrup-Andersen 1982; Pinstrup-Andersen and Hazell 1985; Lipton 1989). However, the impact on food consumption and nutrition is poorly documented.

Agricultural technologies of the "green revolution" type have brought substantial direct benefits to many developing countries. Prominent among these has been increased food output, sometimes even in excess of the increasing food demands of a growing population. This has enabled food prices to decline in some countries, while in others prices have not risen as fast as they would have without the green revolution.

One aspect of the research undertaken in North Arcot in 1973/74 by the Cambridge project was a comparative study of the sample villages.

Successful agricultural development requires not only the development of physical infrastructure such as irrigation, electrification, and roads but also the increased provision of key services such as credit, transport, agroprocessing, marketing, and the delivery of farm inputs. Agricultural growth also stimulates increased demands by rural people for consumer-oriented services, such as improved health and education, transport, communication, and retail and personal services.

Agricultural growth is essential for fostering economic development and feeding growing populations in most developing countries. As land and water become increasingly scarce, this growth will depend more and more on yield-increasing technological changes of the green revolution" type. A major concern is how these technologies will affect the poor. If the poor are left behind and rural inequalities worsen, agricultural growth may fail to achieve its intended objectives... Peter Hazell and C.

This chapter develops an extended input-output model to provide a quantitative analysis of the direct and indirect impacts of increased agricultural production on the regional economy. The model is calibrated for 1982/83 using the 1982/83 social accounting matrix (SAM) (see Chapter 7).