Resource information
This paper uses district level data to
estimate the general relationship between climate, income
and life expectancy in Peru. The analysis finds that both
incomes and life expectancy show hump-shaped relationships,
with optimal average annual temperatures around 18-20ºC.
These estimated relationships were used to simulate the
likely effects of both past (1958-2008) and future
(2008-2058) climate change. At the aggregate level, future
climate change in Peru is estimated to cause a small
reduction in average life expectancy of about 0.2 years.
This average, however, hides much larger losses in the
already hot areas as well as substantial gains in currently
cold areas. Similarly, the average impact on incomes is a
modest reduction of 2.3 percent, but with some districts
experiencing losses of up to 20 percent and others gains of
up to 13 percent. Future climate change is estimated to
cause an increase in poverty (all other things equal), but
to have no significant effect on the distribution of incomes.
