Resource information
This paper quantifies the impact of
inundation risk and salinization on the family structure and
economic welfare of coastal households in Bangladesh. These
households are already on the "front line" of
climate change, so their adaptation presages the future for
hundreds of millions of families worldwide who will face
similar threats by 2100. The analysis is based on a
household decision model that relates spatial deployment of
working-age, migration-capable members to inundation and
salinization threats. The analysis uses appropriate
estimation techniques, including adjustments for spatial
autocorrelation, and finds that households subject to high
inundation and salinization threats have significantly
higher out-migration rates for working-age adults
(particularly males), dependency ratios, and poverty
incidence than their counterparts in non-threatened areas.
The findings indicate that the critical zone for inundation
risk lies within four kilometers of the coast, with
attenuated impacts for coastal-zone households at higher
elevations. The results paint a sobering picture of life at
the coastal margin for Bangladeshi households threatened by
inundation and salinization, particularly households that
are relatively isolated from market centers. They respond by
"hollowing out," as economic necessity drives more
working-age adults to seek outside earnings. Those left
behind face a far greater likelihood of extreme poverty than
their counterparts in less-threatened areas. The powerful
results for market access, coupled with previous findings on
salinity and road maintenance, suggest that infrastructure
investment may offer a promising option. Road improvements
that reduce travel times for isolated settlements compensate
them for an increase in salinity. Thus, road improvement may
warrant particular attention as an attractive adaptation
investment in coastal Bangladesh.
