How China's Farmers Adapt to Climate Change

This paper uses a cross sectional method
to analyze irrigation choice and crop choice across 8,405
farmers in 28 provinces in China. The findings show that
Chinese farmers are more likely to irrigate when facing
lower temperatures and less precipitation. Farmers in
warmer places are more likely to choose oil crops, maize,
and especially cotton and wheat, and are less likely to
choose vegetables, potatoes, sugar, and especially rice and
soybeans. In wetter locations, farmers are more likely to
choose soybeans, oil crops, sugar, vegetables, cotton, and
especially rice, and they are less likely to choose
potatoes, wheat, and especially maize. The analysis of how
Chinese farmers have adapted to current climate, provides
insight into how they will likely adapt when climate
changes. Future climate scenarios will cause farmers in
China to want to reduce irrigation and shift toward oil
crops, wheat, and especially cotton. In turn, farmers will
shift away from potatoes, rice, vegetables, and soybeans.
However, adaptation will likely vary greatly from region to
region. Policy makers should anticipate that adaptation is
important, that the magnitude of changes depends on the
climate scenario, and that the desired changes depend on the
location of each farm.