Measuring the poverty and distributional
impact of the global crisis for developing countries is not
easy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limited
availability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches are
of limited use in addressing questions like who are being
affected by the crisis and by how much, and who are
vulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens?
This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method,

This paper assesses the impact of water
supply variability on treaty cooperation between
international bilateral river basin riparian states. Climate
change is anticipated to change the variability of water
supply, as well as its expected magnitude. Previous studies
have focused mainly on water scarcity, measured in terms of
mean precipitation or per capita water availability in the
country, as a trigger for conflict or cooperation. The water

This paper provides an overview of the
history of development research at the World Bank and points
to new future directions in both what we research and how we
research. Six main messages emerge. First, research and data
have long been essential elements of the Bank's country
programs and its contributions to global public goods, and
this will remain the case. Second, development thinking is
in a state of flux and uncertainty; it is time to reconsider

An increase in sea surface temperature
is evident at all latitudes and in all oceans. The current
understanding is that ocean warming plays a major role in
intensified cyclone activity and heightened storm surges.
The vulnerability of coastlines to intensified storm surges
can be ascertained by overlaying Geographic Information
System information with data on land, population density,
agriculture, urban extent, major cities, wetlands, and gross

Regional disparities present an ever
present development challenge in most countries, especially
those with large geographic areas under their jurisdiction.
A neglect of these inequities may create the potential for
disunity and, in extreme cases, for disintegration. In view
of this, most countries actively pursue policies with a view
to helping lagging regions catch up with faster growing
regions. These policies have at best a mixed record of

This paper applies a growth diagnostics
approach to identify the most binding constraints to
private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked
country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita
incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the
constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and
investments) most binding on marginal investment, and
therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on

This study documents the long-term
welfare effects of household non-traditional agricultural
export (NTX) adoption. The analysis uses a unique panel
dataset, which spans the period 1985-2005, and employs
difference-in-differences estimation to investigate the
long-term impact of non-traditional agricultural export
adoption on changes in household consumption status and
asset position in the Central Highlands of Guatemala. Given

World Development Indicators (WDI) 2009
arrives at a moment of great uncertainty for the global
economy. The crisis that began more than a year ago in the
U.S. housing market spread to the global financial system
and is now taking its toll on real output and incomes. As a
consequence, an additional 50 million people will be left in
extreme poverty. And if the crisis deepens and widens or is
prolonged, other development indicators, school enrollments,

Vietnam's forests remain dependent
on public resources, including international development
assistance, for the delivery of public and private services
that include timber production, state forest management,
forest protection and biodiversity conservation, and
extension and research. Public subsidies are also provided
to smallholder forest owners to stimulate investments into
the sector. For the Government it is important to

This paper examines firm entry and
survival in exporting, and in products and markets not
previously served by any domestic exporters. The authors use
data on the nontraditional agriculture sector in Peru, which
grew seven-fold from 1994 to 2007. They find tremendous firm
entry and exit in the export sector, with exits more likely
after one year and among firms that start small. There is
also significant entry and exit in new markets. In contrast,

This paper provides empirical estimates
of the impacts of natural disasters on different forms of
capital (with a focus on human and intangible capital and
natural capital), and on real gross domestic product per
capita. The types of disaster considered are droughts,
earthquakes, floods, and storms and their impacts are
measured in terms of the number of people affected or people
affected per capita. The authors find statistically

This paper examines the impacts of
natural disasters on schooling investments with special
focus on the roles of ex-ante actions and ex-post responses
using panel data from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Malawi. The
importance of ex-ante actions depends on disaster risks and
the likelihood of public assistance, which potentially
creates substitution between the two actions. The findings
show that higher future probabilities of disasters increase