Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa

Over the last two decades Samoa has
suffered major damage from two cyclones in 1990-91, minor
damage from a third cyclone in 2004, and an earthquake
tsunami in 2009. Changes in the scale and impact of these
types of natural disasters are likely to be important
consequences of climate change for the country because the
increases in sea level and in average sea surface
temperatures will increase theintensity and damage
from major storms. Other potential impacts are linked to
changes in the weather patterns associated with El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The primary concern
focuses on the impact on agriculture, especially in periods
of lower precipitation following strong El Niño
episodes.This study examines the consequences of
an increase in average temperatures of up to 1°C by 2050 and
up to 2.75°C by 2100 for the frequency and intensity of
major cyclones that hit the islands. Estimates of the
economic damage caused by storms in the past have been used
to calibrate a damage function that yields an estimated
increase in the expected value of economic damage as the
peak wind speeds for storms with return periods of 10, 50,
or 100 years rise over time. In this framework the key
element of adaptation is to ensure that buildings and other
assets are designed to standards that enable them to cope
with the greater wind stresses and more intense
precipitation associated with worse storms.