Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World

This paper conducts an integrated
assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation
on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in
low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the
partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to
2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the
agricultural sector will increase progressively over the
century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food
consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a
world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In
the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global
average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent
by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C
uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also
result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050
and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference
scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change
mitigation on development than climate change itself,
revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be
redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects
of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets
raise important issues for food security in the long run,
but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030.
Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income
countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus
prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and
mitigation efforts will become the greatest.