This chapter summarises the key insights from the case studies included in the book. First, it discusses the technology-deforestation link in six different types of cases: developed countries, commodity booms, shifting cultivation, permanent upland (rainfed) agriculture, irrigated (lowland) agriculture, and cattle production. Next, it returns to the hypotheses presented in the book, and discusses the key conditioning factors in the technology-deforestation link. A number of factors determine the outcome.

The thesis of this paper is that the "rational fool" syndrome can be applied to mainstream public sector agricultural research that is conducted in a way that is rational in the short term, but acts against its own long-term viability. Historically, a main concern of such research has been to maximize high levels of food production together with low prices to consumers. As a result, mainstream agricultural science has ignored negative impacts or externalities, which has contributed to a crisis of credibility with the general public and politically sensitive decision makers.

This introductory chapter sets the scene for the discussion in the edited volume on how new agricultural affects tropical forests. It critically reviews four hypotheses that have been central in the claim that better technologies help protect forests: the Borlaug, the subsistence, the economic development and the land degradation-deforestation hypotheses. Each of them appears to be valid only under certain restrictive conditions. The chapter then gives the aims and scope of the book, the key conclusions, as well as a summary of each of the chapters.

This final chapter of the book offers a set of policy recommendations. It presents some typical win-win outcomes, including technologies suited for forest poor areas, labour intensive technologies promoting intensification to replace land extensive farming practices, and promoting agricultural systems that provide environmental services similar to those of natural forests.

Swidden farming is the main agent of conversion of primary forests to secondary forests in the highlands of mainland Southeast Asia, but there is a deterioration and decline of the practice with land use intensification. The population growth in northern Thailand has forced lowland farmers practising permanent wet rice cultivation to turn to short rotation swidden in the foot hill zone. Highland swidden agriculturists are adopting more intensive forms of swidden or are shifting to permanent farming.

This chapter spells out the theoretical framework for the discussion and case studies of the book. First, it provides precise definitions of technological change and classify technological change into different types based on their factor intensities. The discussion starts off with a single farm household. Two key concepts for understanding how that household will respond to technological changes are economic incentives and constraints. The former relates to how new technologies influence the economic return of different activities.

Over the last decade, following the doi moi reforms, the Vietnamese government has formally recognised the household as the basic unit of production and allocated land use rights to households. Under the 1993 Land Law these rights can be transferred, exchanged, leased, inherited, and mortgaged. A land market is emerging in Vietnam but is still constrained for various reasons. Additionally, lack of flexibility of land use is an issue.

The Netherlands submitted data on afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) as well as on additional activities (article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol), as requested by the UNFCCC per 1st of August 2000. Article 3.3 under the IPCC scenario gives a 0,011 Mt C sink for the first commitment period. The article 3.4 activities give a source of 12,7 Mt CO2 due to grassland on peatlands, which are a large CO2-source in the Netherlands. Non CO2-gases and soil carbon are excluded

Dit rapport kijkt naar de lange termijn ontwikkelingen - de komende twee decennia - in het agrarisch gebied, met daarbij de ambities van de Stichting Natuur en Milieu in het achterhoofd. Het agrarisch gebied slaat op dat deel van Nederland dat niet verstedelijkt is noch natuurterrein. De volgende vragen worden beantwoord. - Wat mogen we in de diverse gebieden op langere termijn verwachten? - Wat is gezien de doelstellingen van SNM eigenlijk gewenst met betrekking tot het agrarisch gebied? - Welke middelen staan tot onze beschikking om de kloof tussen verwacht en gewenst te overbruggen?