Declines in British-breeding populations of Afro-Palaearctic migrant birds are linked to bioclimatic wintering zone in Africa, possibly via constraints on arrival time advancement
Capsule The bioclimatic zone and habitat type within which birds winter are the most important determinants of population trends.Aims To investigate whether regional factors on wintering grounds, phenological mismatch, or habitat on breeding or wintering grounds show relationships with population changes of Afro-Palaearctic migrant birds.Methods We modelled breeding bird survey trends of 26 species of Afro-Palaearctic migrant birds that breed in Britain, and assessed the most important variables.