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This study provides a framework for the joint analysis of long-term land cover changes and climatic variations at regional scale. The land cover distribution observed in Italy in 1960, 1990, and 2006 was compared with trends in annual precipitation and the aridity index estimated during 1951–2007. Annual rainfall decreased by 0.41% per year during the examined period with the consequent increase in the aridity index (0.48% per year). Both rainfall decrease and aridity increase followed a non-uniform spatial distribution impacting differently the Mediterranean landscape mosaic. Land cover classes with higher precipitation rates and moderate to low aridity regimes experienced larger climate variations. Natural and semi-natural areas (including forests, shrublands, pastures, mountain zones with glaciers and rocky areas) resulted as the most vulnerable to climate aridity. Croplands were associated to moderately dry conditions in 1951–1960 but underwent only mild climate variations during the following fifty years. Results may inform sustainable regional planning for peri-urban and rural land experiencing aridity and contribute to the implementation of national action plans against climate changes in the Mediterranean basin.
