Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion on Emissions from Land-Use Change

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/14/2010.
We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-usechange. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture modelto assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd sizeand stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introduces a tax on methane emissionsfrom cattle in the United States. The resulting expansion of pasture in the rest of the world leadsto substantially higher emissions than without the tax. The yearly average emissions from the taxare 260 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.