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Research Highlights: The informed decisions on land use require assessment of the impacts of these decisions on the supply of different ecosystem services. Background and Objectives: Scenario modeling can be used to provide harmonized and quantitative information on the impacts of various zoning decisions on the provision of various ecosystem services. In this study, we explored the effects of land-use zoning decisions on the provision of roundwood and energy wood, carbon stock of living tree components, berry yields, scenic beauty and recreation. Materials and Methods: Three alternative forest scenarios were formulated in terms of restrictions on forest management for already established land-use zones by the provinces in Finland. These data were integrated with the National Forest Inventory (NFI) plot data for forest dynamics modeling. Results: In Finland, 9% of the forest land was protected and 9% was under restricted forest management due to legislative decisions, forest owners’ decisions, or regional land use plans in 2016. These established zoning decisions resulted in an estimated 17% smaller roundwood and energy wood removals per year in 2016–2025 compared to the estimated wood removals in the scenario without any restrictions. The decrease in annual gross stumpage earnings was EUR 775 million per year. The carbon stock of living tree components in 2025 was 12% larger than in the scenario without any restrictions. Bilberry yield increased due to the restrictions considered in our study, while the restrictions had only a slight effect on cowberry yield at province and country levels. The restrictions increased the recreation value, particularly in Lapland, but only slightly affected scenic beauty at province and country levels. Conclusions: Scenario analyses support informed decision making and the balancing of different forest uses. Harmonized translation of restrictions and the use of standard indicators to model the impacts also support comparisons between the regions.
