Genotype × environment × agronomic management interaction to enhance wheat yield in the Mediterranean rainfed environments of Morocco: II. Process based modeling

urum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) is the oldest and most cultivated cereal crop in Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) region and under Mediterranean climatic conditions. Morocco is one of the largest pro ducer of durum wheat in MENA region, cultivated in more than 1 million ha area produced 2.5 million tons in
2020, which accounts for 17% of the total production in the region. In the region, rainfed production system is
predominant, and with declining rainfall amounts with high variability, increasing water scarcity, and subop timal input application, its productivity growth is low and needs to be increased to fulfill the growing demand.
Developing context-specific management advisory is needed to improve productivity and resilience under such
variable rainfed production environments. Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model was
calibrated and evaluated using four years (2015–2019) of on-station experimental data from genotype × seeding
time × water management experiment conducted at International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry
Areas (ICARDA) research station, Morocco. Long-term (1984–2021) simulation was carried out to determine the
contribution of Genotype × Environment × Management components for sustainably improving crop produc tivity. The results showed rainfall or supplementary irrigation (23–36%) followed by N fertilizer (28–38%),
cultivar (9–14%), and seeding date (7–14%) have the largest contribution to the yield variance of durum wheat
in Merchouch, Meknes, and Sidi El Aidi regions of Morocco. Under rainfed conditions, wheat yield was highest in
Merchouch (4.5 t ha− 1
) and lowest (1.8 t ha− 1
) in Sidi El Aidi. Due to significant rainfall variability, the seeding
date varies across year and location; however, generally, it is between 2nd week of November to 1st week of
December. Under rainfed conditions, seeding after 1st week of December caused the average yield reduction of
120, 81, and 31 kg ha− 1 d− 1 in Merchouch, Meknes, and Sidi El Aidi, respectively. In all locations, short-duration
varieties provided higher averaged yields with better resilience than medium and long-duration varieties.
Decomposing yield variance caused by Genotype × Environment × Management provides the opportunity for
risk reduction, improvement of wheat yield and resilience, and designing climate-smart adaptation strategies in rainfed Mediterranean conditions. Our findings highlight one-size-fits-all approach is inadequate and context specific tailored agronomic practices and suitable genotypes is crucial for achieving sustainability and resil ience of wheat production in variable climatic condition in Morocco and similar production environment.