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Two-thirds of Bangladesh is less than 5
meters above sea level, making it one of the most flood
prone countries in the world. Severe flooding during a
monsoon causes significant damage to crops and property,
with severe adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. Future
climate change seems likely to increase the destructive
power of monsoon floods. This paper examines the potential
cost of offsetting increased flooding risk from climate
change, based on simulations from a climate model of extreme
floods out to 2050. Using the 1998 flood as a benchmark for
evaluating additional protection measures, the authors
calculate conservatively that necessary capital investments
out to 2050 would total US$2,671 million (at 2009 prices) to
protect roads and railways, river embankments surrounding
agricultural lands, and drainage systems and erosion control
measures for major towns. With gradual climate change,
however, required investments would be phased. Beyond these
capital-intensive investments, improved policies, planning
and institutions are essential to ensure that such
investments are used correctly and yield the expected
benefits. Particular attention is needed to the robustness
of benefits from large-scale fixed capital investments.
Investments in increased understanding of risk-mitigation
options and in economic mobility will have especially high returns.
