Implications of carbon forestry for local livelihoods and leakage
• CONTEXT : An inequitable distribution of the costs and benefits of carbon forestry could undermine its role in tackling climate change, but safeguarding local livelihoods could undercut its effectiveness. • AIMS : We simulate a reforestation program in a densely populated locality in central Mexico to analyze indirect land-use change, or leakage, associated with the program and its implications for local livelihoods. • METHODS : An agent-based, general equilibrium model simulates scenarios that deconstruct the sources of leakage and livelihood outcomes.