A Markov Chain Model of Land Use Change | Land Portal

Información del recurso

Date of publication: 
Diciembre 2015
Resource Language: 
ISBN / Resource ID: 
DOAJ:9838b667eddf49c1b514712b172ce2d7
Pages: 
13
License of the resource: 
Copyright details: 
http://www.tema.unina.it/index.php/tema/about/submissions#copyrightNotice

The set of models available to predict land use change in urban regions has become increasingly complex in recent years. Despite their complexity, the predictive power of these models remains relatively weak. This paper presents an example of an alternative modeling framework based on the concept of a Markov chain. The model assumes that land use at any given time, which is viewed as a discrete state, can be considered a function of only its previous state. The probability of transition between each pair of states is recorded as an element of a transition probability matrix.  Assuming that this matrix is stationary over time, it can be used to predict future land use distributions from current data. To illustrate this process, a Markov chain model is estimated for the Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN, USA (Twin Cities) metropolitan region.  Using a unique set of historical land use data covering several years between 1958 and 2005, the model is tested using historical data to predict recent conditions, and is then used to forecast the future distribution of land use decades into the future. We also use the cell-level data set to estimate the fraction of regional land use devoted to transportation facilities, including major highways, airports, and railways. The paper concludes with some comments on the strengths and weaknesses of Markov chains as a land use modeling framework, and suggests some possible extensions of the model.

Autores y editores

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s): 

Michael Iacono
David Levinson
Ahmed El-Geneidy
Rania Wasfi

Publisher(s): 
University of Naples Federico II logo

The University of Naples Federico II (ItalianUniversità degli Studi di Napoli Federico II) is a university located in Naples, Italy. Founded in 1224 it is the oldest public non-religious university in the world, and is now organized in 13 faculties. It was Europe's first university dedicated to training secular administrative staff, and one of the oldest academic institutions in continuous operation.

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