Recent advances in approaches to quantitative strategic foresight have enabled new insights into understanding potential futures of the agriculture sector. Quantitative foresight approaches facilitate understanding of different plausible scenarios, especially as related to both endogenous and exogenous factors (e.g., global markets and climate change). These approaches tend to be macroeconomic in nature and resolve trends relative to coarse-grained drivers.

Drylands are a critical part of the earth system in terms of total area, socioeconomic and ecological importance. However, while drylands are known for their contribution to inter-annual atmospheric CO2 variability, they are sometimes overlooked in discussions of global carbon stocks. Here, in preparation for the November 2021 UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), we review dryland systems with emphasis on their role in current and future carbon storage, response to climate change and potential to contribute to a carbon neutral future.

The Zimbabwean dairy industry is massively underperforming, as evidenced by a reduction in milk yield from 262 million liters in 1990 to <37 million liters in 2009 and a steady but slow increase to 82 million liters in 2021. The current demand for milk in Zimbabwe stands at 130 million liters, and there is a national capacity for processing 400 million liters per annum.

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) is seeking to overcome the food security problem and develop rural livelihoods while minimizing negative impacts on the environment. However, when such synergies exist, the situation of small-scale farmers is often overlooked, and they are unable to implement new practices and technologies. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to improve CSA by adding the neglected but very important element “small-scale farmer”, and introduce Vulnerable-Smart Agriculture (VSA) as a complete version of CSA.

This CSA Country Profile describes the risks posed by climate change to agriculture in Indonesia, discusses the potential of CSA to attenuate those risks, identifies factors that can influence the adoption of CSA practices, and highlights potential entry points for investment in CSA at scale. The report is split into two parts; the National Profile and Provincial Profiles.

Livestock are critical for incomes, livelihoods, nutrition and ecosystems management throughout the global South. Livestock production and the consumption of livestock-based foods such as meat, cheese, and milk is, however, under global scrutiny for its contribution to global warming, deforestation, biodiversity loss, water use, pollution, and land/soil degradation. This paper argues that, although the environmental footprint of livestock production presents a real threat to planetary sustainability, also in the global south, this is highly contextual.

Cocoa and oil palm are the major commodity crops produced in Ghana and livelihood options for hundreds of thousands of rural households. However, their production has negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Certification standards have been promoted as a market-led mechanism to ensure their sustainable production. Even though food security does not feature in the theory of change of most certification standards, there are interesting intersections. This paper assesses the food security outcomes of certification adoption among cocoa and oil palm smallholders in Ghana.

This practitioner’s guide explains how to promote gender-responsive forest tenure reform in community-based forest regimes. It is aimed at those taking up this challenge in developing countries. There is no one single approach to reforming forest tenure practices for achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment. Rather, it involves taking advantage of opportunities that emerge in various institutional arenas such as policy and law-making and implementation, government administration, customary or community-based tenure governance, or forest restoration at the landscape scale.

Providing credible and quantifiable measures of the impact of CGIAR innovations at scale has always been a challenge. Recent SPIA-supported research has attempted to address this challenge using quasi-experimental approaches to assessing impact. This technical note details some of these completed and ongoing studies and approaches, focusing on the identification strategies used to infer causal impact, and the kinds of diverse data sets that may be brought to bear in making these inferences.

This research report presents the first comprehensive framework of business models in terms of developing, marketing and scaling Index-based flood insurance (IBFI). The report evaluated ten case studies on agricultural insurance schemes (macro, meso and micro levels), globally, to develop public-private partnership business models for creating value (product development) and capturing value (product marketing).

Malnutrition, mostly resulting from poor food, health, and care practices, is related to physiological, socioeconomic, and psychological factors and remains one of the leading causes of mortality in children under five years of age in low- and middle-income countries. Nigeria, as with many parts of the world, is experiencing a multiple malnutrition burden, where undernutrition, including micronutrient deficiencies, exists alongside overweight, obesity, and associated diet-related non-communicable diseases.