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Question: Small and marginal forest populations are a focus of attention because of their high biodiversity value as well as the risk of population decline and loss. In this context, we ask to what extent a small, marginal Quercus suber (Cork oak) population located in the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Valencia, Spain) has the capacity for self‐regeneration and what are the factors that determine its recruitment variability. Location: Quercus suber forest in Pinet (Valencia, Spain). Methods: We performed a spatially explicit sampling both of the recruitment and of the potential parameters that could account for the recruitment variability. Using regression techniques we model the recruitment occurrence and abundance, and then we test to what extent the model obtained is still constrained by the spatial dependence. Results: Quercus suber recruitment density ranges from 0 to 18.66 individuals/25m² (mean = 1.46, SD = 2.8), with a very skewed distribution. Recruitment is similar under Q. suber forests and under Pinus forests, but it is almost absent under shrublands. Thus the parameters that explain most of the recruitment variability in local vegetation types are: the presence and cover of shrubs (negative relationship with recruitment), the basal area of Q. suber and Pinus and the amount of bare soil (all positively related to recruitment). These parameters are strongly related to the ecological processes driving recruitment (i.e. dispersal and predation) and they remove most of the spatial dependence of recruitment. Most recruiters, however, are small, forming a seedling bank rather than growing to successfully colonize new habitats. Conclusion: The results suggest that although recruitment densities are not very high, they do not limit potential regeneration in the Pinet Q. suber forest. However, successful regeneration is not observed. If we aim to increase the Pinet Q. suber population size, land management measures need to provide appropriate conditions for both seedling establishment in shrublands (e.g. shrub clearing) and seedling growth in woodlands (e.g. Pinus logging).
