Economic and employment implications of a carbon market for integrated farm forestry and biodiverse environmental plantings

Many studies have predicted, at a national scale, the economic viability of new forestry plantings to contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia's cleared agricultural lands. Such predictions are highly uncertain given: (i) differences in site quality, management regimes and planting geometries (belt versus block configurations) result in rates of sequestration that are highly variable at regional scales and (ii) uncertainties in carbon accounting methods in future carbon markets. Here we examined the economics of three case studies (two of farm forestry and one of biodiverse environmental plantings) to address these issues. There was significant variation in economic viability both between and within case studies (average coefficient of variation of 39%) as a result of differences in site quality, management regime and planting geometries. We conclude that if carbon offset investment targets marginal land (i.e. areas of farms of lowest productivity), carbon prices required for economic viability are