Resource information
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM)
looks at the potential for accelerated economic growth in
Tajikistan, where as of the peace agreement of mid-1997,
renewed reform efforts have brought stability, where
inflation is under control, small scale privatization has
been completed, and, efforts to reform agriculture have been
intensified. However, the main challenge lies in reducing
poverty through economic growth, helping the Government
develop a set of policies to achieve this objective. The
report focuses on productive economic sectors, such as
industry, and agriculture, although the importance of the
power sector is also briefly discussed. Finance and banking,
telecommunications and transport, are outlined, basically
due to their importance in the expansion of domestic
economic activity, and regional/international trade. The
report stipulates macroeconomic stability is still fragile,
namely due to low tax revenues, and rising foreign debt,
constraining fiscal sustainability, while implementation of
structural reforms remains elusive, and, the share of
private sector is very low. Nonetheless, Tajikistan's
potential to increase its output with little additional
investment, lies in its human, and physical capital,
provided these are used efficiently in the medium term.
Sustaining macroeconomic stability, requires credibility,
and consistency in monetary policies, improved revenue
mobilization, and careful management of its foreign debt.
But a medium-term strategy should be in place, to sequence
reforms, and enable private development.
