Vulnerability assessment of Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change impacts on Quercus ceris L. var. pseudo-cerris (Boiss.) Boiss Quercus calliprinos Webb. and Pinus brutia Ten. populations

Located in the Keserwan-Jbeil region of Lebanon, the Jabal Moussa Biosphere Reserve (N 34º 03’ 43.93”, E 35º 46’ 09.84”) is bordered by the Nahr Ibrahim river to the north and the Nahr el Dahab river to the south. The area of the reserve is approximately 6 500 ha large and the range of altitudes (350 to 1 600 m) is responsible for a wide variety of habitats. A typical Mediterranean ecosystem is located within the reserve, where evergreen sclerophylic shrubs and forests are the most common type of vegetation spread on karstic landscapes and steep slopes. Jabal Moussa was designated as a Protected Forest by the Lebanese Ministry of Agriculture in 2008. A year later, it was declared as a Biosphere Reserve under UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere Program, as well as an Important Bird Area by Bird Life International. Like all UNESCO Biosphere Reserves, Jabal Moussa is divided into three main management zones: core area, buffer zone, and development or transition zone (Figure