Migrant Opportunity and the Educational Attainment of Youth in Rural China

This paper investigates how reductions
of barriers to migration affect the decision of middle
school graduates to attend high school in rural China.
Change in the cost of migration is identified using
exogenous variation across counties in the timing of
national identity card distribution, which made it easier
for rural migrants to register as temporary residents in
urban destinations. The analysis first shows that timing of
identification card distribution is unrelated to local
rainfall shocks affecting migration decisions, and that
timing is not related to proxies reflecting time-varying
changes in village policy or administrative capacity. The
findings show a robust negative relationship between migrant
opportunity and high school enrollment. The mechanisms
behind the negative relationship are suggested by observed
increases in subsequent local and migrant non-agricultural
employment of high school age young adults as the size of
the current village migrant network increases.