An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia

This report assesses the economic
impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using
the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model
with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been
fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic
variables as explanatory variables. There is one main
cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April.
Crop production in this period depends solely on rains.
Considering crop progression in three stages-germination,
growing, and maturing, which require different amounts of
water and temperature-the climate variables included in the
model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness
index for the periods November to December, January to
February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear
relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables,
quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in
the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic
variables are not significant, whereas some climate
variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are
significant in the model. Further findings are that an
increase in the November-December mean temperature and a
decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative
impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the
January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has
a positive impact.