AIM: Deforestation and climate change are two of the most serious threats to tropical birds. Here, we combine fine‐scale climatic and dynamic land cover models to forecast species vulnerability in rain forest habitats. LOCATION: Sulawesi, Indonesia. METHODS: We sampled bird communities on four mountains across three seasons in Lore Lindu National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia (a globally important hotspot of avian endemism), to characterize relationships between elevation and abundance. Deforestation from 2000 to 2010 was quantified, and predictors of deforestation were identified.