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This study examines forest change processes, within the framework of forest transition theory (FTT), using Mississippi (USA) as a case study. The aim is to evaluate the assumption and theoretical basis of FTT with quantitative data, and to propose changes in forest management policy as a potential driver for reforestation. We compiled a number of historical records, geospatial data, and time series forest mapping products to reconstruct the last 100 years of forest trajectory. Forest changes are studied in relation to changes in society, over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Details of forest dynamics (e.g., the rate and extent of forest gain and loss) were quantified, while considering the ecological properties of the secondary forests. Mississippi forests are intensively managed and fragmented secondary forests, while regenerated entirely through plantation. The quantified forest transition (FT) curve indicated that forest dynamics have been nonlinear and have involved multiple reversals, resulting in multiple periods of forest expansion. The spatial and temporal analysis with time series remote sensing data over the last 30 years reveals that Mississippi forests have experienced very frequent changes and disturbance, even during the period of forest expansion. These change patterns are not apparent when considering total forest area estimates. The result illustrates that the “forest scarcity pathway” of FTT (Rudel et al., Global Environmental Change Part A 15(1) (2005) 23–31) worked to reverse the deforestation trend for the initial FT period. However, regenerated forests have experienced another episode of FT and expansion, and this cannot be explained by the forest scarcity pathway. Rather, the case of Mississippi suggests an alternative pathway (Mather, International Forestry Review 9(1) (2007) 491–502; Lambin and Meyfroidt, Land Use Policy 27 (2010) 108–118), distinct from the previous work, and highlights the importance of changes in policy incentives to account for forest recovery. The conceptual basis of FTT proposed by Mather (Area 24(4) (1992) 367–379) and Grainger (Area 27(3) (1995) 242–251) is revisited, showing how two alternative views are complementary, providing explanation for the repeated patterns of FT. This study presents empirical evidence to understand the theoretical basis and assumptions of FTT and suggests a new path for FT, “forest management policy pathway”.
