Global sustainability strategies require assessing whether countries’ development trajectories are sustainable over time. However, sustainability assessments are limited because losses of natural capital and its ecosystem services through deforestation have not been comprehensively incorporated into national accounts. We update the national accounts of 80 nations that underwent tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012 and evaluate their development trajectories using weak and strong sustainability criteria.

The dependence of smallholder farmers on forest resources for their sustenance and livelihoods is a major driver of deforestation and degradation of forest resources in tropical countries. Understanding the socio-economic drivers that aggravate the extraction and overexploitation of forest products is vital for designing effective forest conservation and restoration measures. This particularly holds with regard to the importance of two fundamentally opposing motivations of smallholder forest exploitation, which we label “wood extraction for need” vs. “wood extraction for greed”.

Conservation projects have often been criticised for creating global benefits while causing negative impacts on local livelihoods. Ecosystem services approaches have been seen as one way to change this by focussing explicitly on maintaining ecosystems for human well-being of stakeholders at various scales. However, ecosystem services approaches have often ignored trade-offs between groups of people and issues of power and do not automatically lead to better outcomes in terms of human well-being.