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In Mediterranean mountains, the abandonment of traditional land-uses is promoting a rapid forest expansion. This trend may be exacerbated by nature reserves, which further limit human disturbance in mountain contexts. We investigated whether ecological parameters, landscape structure, and management policy influenced vegetation cover/dynamics over a 14-year period in the Pollino National Park, a large protected area in southern Italy. Based on remote sensed and field data we obtained land-cover maps referred to 2004, 1997, and 1990. Canonical ordination related patterns of vegetation cover/dynamics to ecological (elevation, slope, climate) and structural (spatial heterogeneity) landscape traits. Higher change rate regarded scrublands (decrease) and forests (expansion). Spatial heterogeneity declined over the study period, while the average area of forest patches increased. A non-spatial transition matrix model revealed that the decline of pastures/scrublands, and forest recovery accelerated in the 1997–2004 period compared to the 1990–1997 interval. Since the Pollino National Park was established in 1993, the protection regime may have favored the reduction of open habitats in the second timeframe. The recognized trends suggest a future reduction of both landscape complexity and dynamics in the Pollino National Park, a factor that could possibly be detrimental for the conservation of biodiversity.
