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Due to resettlements, construction of new infrastructure, and new land reclamation the rapid agricultural changes in the Three Georges Area (TGA) in Central China are expected to force the degradation of the cultivated terraced landscape. Consequently, increased soil erosion can hamper a sustainable land management in the mountainous TGA. This paper presents the model framework TerraCE (Terrace Condition Erosion) for determining the causes for different terrace conditions and terrace degradation based on field surveys and spatial data mining. For a total of 987 bench terrace plots in the Xiangxi catchment we collected data on their state of maintenance and terrace design to account for terrace stability and thus capability of soil conservation. Assessing the driving factors of terrace degradation was done by embedding terrain-based predictors and distance-transforms of remote-sensing data as indicators of environmental and anthropogenic influences. Random forests classification and regression models were applied for data mining. Terrace degradation in the Xiangxi catchment is obvious. The sequence of degradation ranges from ‘well maintained’ (21%), ‘fairly maintained’ (44%), and ‘partially collapsed’ (23%) to ‘completely collapsed’ (11%) terraces. The cross-validation error of the supervised TerraCE model is below 8%, allowing for reasonable and valid interpretations of the causes of terrace degradation. Data mining reveals indicators for anthropogenic effects such as the distance to settlements or to roads as major drivers for the spatial distribution of terrace conditions. The effect of relief, which can be regarded as the major natural driver for terrace degradation by erosive action is tributary but altered and overlaid by land use dynamics associated with the Three Gorges Dam. An important indicator representing a combined effect of terrain and human activity is the distance to stream channels of different orders. Applying TerraCE we reveal mechanisms of terrace degradation in disturbed environments and present a framework for standardized mapping and analysis of terrace degradation under cultivation. The approach might also be used to develop guidelines for terrace planning in mountainous terraced landscapes of limited carrying capacity, with respect to socio-economic as well as environmental conditions.
