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Library Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

Incorporating regional growth into forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from project-level residential and commercial development

Resource information

Date of publication
December 2013
Resource Language
ISBN / Resource ID
AGRIS:US201600066046
Pages
1288-1300

To better understand the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of land use planning decisions, regional planning organizations have developed tools to forecast the emissions from project-level residential and commercial development. This paper reviews the state of GHG emissions forecasting methods for project-level development. We argue that when forecasting changes in regional emissions it is important to make explicit what is assumed about a project′s effect on the population of residents and businesses in the region. We present five regional growth assumptions capturing the range of ways that project-level development might influence (i) construction and occupancy of similar developments elsewhere in a region and (ii) relocation of the initial activities that occur on-site before the project is built. We show that current forecasting tools inconsistently address the latter when they are interpreted as forecasted changes in regional emissions. Using a case study in Yolo County, California we demonstrate that forecasted changes in regional emissions are greatly affected by the regional growth assumption. In the absence of information about which regional growth assumption is accurate, we provide guidelines for selection of a conservative regional growth assumption.

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Authors and Publishers

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s)

Rowangould, Dana
Eldridge, Melody
Niemeier, Deb

Publisher(s)
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