Resource information
Economic, agronomic, and biophysical
drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need
to be considered in evaluating economically optimal
allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic,
forward-looking optimization framework applied over the
course of the coming century shows that although some
deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of
climate change regulation, the desirability of further
deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse
productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect
on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth
in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and
higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline.
Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint
further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer
use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand.
However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its
environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates
prior to imposition of the target.
