Resource information
This study seeks to understand how
materials scarcity and competition from alternative uses
affects the potential for widespread deployment of solar
electricity in the long run, in light of related technology
and policy uncertainties. Simulation results of a computable
partial equilibrium model predict a considerable expansion
of solar electricity generation worldwide in the near
decades, as generation technologies improve and production
costs fall. Increasing materials scarcity becomes a
significant constraint for further expansion of solar
generation, which grows considerably slower in the second
half of the coming century. Solar generation capacity
increases with higher energy demand, squeezing consumption
in industries that compete for scarce minerals. Stringent
climate policies hamper growth in intermittent solar
photovoltaics backed by fossil fuel powered plants, but lead
to a small increase in non-intermittent concentrated solar
power technology. By the end of the coming century, solar
electricity remains a marginal source of global electricity
supply even in the world of higher energy demand, strict
carbon regulations, and generation efficiency improvements.
