Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Emissions : Near-term Reductions and Intensity-based Targets

This study analyzes CO2 emissions
reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical
regions by the year 2030 in order to stabilize atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 at the level of 450 ppm (550 ppm
including non CO2 greenhouse gases). It also determines CO2
intensity cuts that would be needed in those countries and
regions if the emission reductions were achieved through
intensity-based targets while assuming no effect on
forecasted economic growth. Considering that the
stabilization of CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm requires the
global trend of CO2 emissions to reverse before 2030, this
study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO2 trend
in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO2
emissions would be 42 percent above the 1990 level in 2030
if the increasing trend of global CO2 emissions is reversed
by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, the
2030 global CO2 emissions would be 52 percent higher than
the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these
targets while maintaining assumed economic growth, the
global average CO2 intensity would require a 68 percent drop
from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level
by 2030.