Resource information
This paper uses the Ricardian approach
to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have
adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates
the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting
for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study
differs from earlier ones by using farmers' own
perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research,
by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or
net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large
tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high
resolution data describing soil quality and runoff.
Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling
the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that
includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres,
as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African
agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by
2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9
percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By
contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are
hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of
only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also
confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by
runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and
precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.
