Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model.

Agricultural policies have impacts on land use, the economy, and the environment and their analysis requires disaggregated data at the local level with geographical references. Thus, this study proposes a model for disaggregating agricultural data, which develops a supervised classification of satellite images by using a survey and empirical knowledge. To ensure the consistency with multiple sources of information, a minimum cross-entropy process was used. The proposed model was applied using two supervised classification algorithms and a more informative set of biophysical information.

Pastoral mobility is seen as the most effective strategy to make use of constantly shifting resources. However, mobile pastoralism as a highly-valued strategy to manage grazing areas and exploit resource variability is becoming more complex, due to recurrent droughts, loss of forage, government-led settlement schemes, and enclosure of land for community conservation, among other reasons. Yet knowledge of how Samburu pastoralists perceive these changes, and govern and innovate in their mobility patterns and resource use, has received limited attention.