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Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate‐Induced Risk to Conservation

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

Much of the biodiversity‐related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land.

Social vulnerability to climate change in primary producers: a typology approach

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014
Australia

Adaptation in agro-ecological systems will be important for moderating the impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessments provide the basis for developing strategies to reduce social vulnerability and plan for climate adaptation. Primary industries have been identified as the most vulnerable industry sector globally. We review how primary producers might be socially vulnerable to climate change and develop a ‘vulnerability typology’ of cattle producers based on survey responses from 240 producers across northern Australia.

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change.

century of chasing the ice: delayed colonisation of ice‐free sites by ground beetles along glacier forelands in the Alps

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

Climate change is affecting species distribution, composition of biological communities, and species traits. Despite the growing body of knowledge on the reaction of species to climate change, the potentially delayed response of species is still severely understudied. In this paper we modelled the time needed by ground‐living invertebrates to effectively react to habitat modification induced by climate change in relation to dispersal abilities.

Forest forecasting with vegetation models across Russia1

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014
Russia

Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species.

Satellite-based assessment of large-scale land cover change in Asian arid regions in the period of 2001–2009

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014
Asia

Arid regions in Asia are commonly characterized by rapidly growing populations with limited land resources and varying rainfall frequencies under climatic change. Despite being one of the most important environmental challenges in Asia, the changing aridity in this region, particularly due to large-scale land cover change, has not been well documented. In this study, we used rainfall data and a new land heterogeneity index to identify recent trend in land cover changes in the Asian arid regions.

Fire Management, Managed Relocation, and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate, Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats.

Futures of Tropical Forests (sensu lato)

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

When net deforestation declines in the tropics, attention will be drawn to the composition and structure of the retained, restored, invaded, and created forests. At that point, the seemingly inexorable trends toward increased intensities of exploitation and management will be recognized as having taken their tolls of biodiversity and other forest values.

Impacts of land cover changes on climate trends in Jiangxi province China

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014
China

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is an important climatic force, and is also affected by climate change. In the present study, we aimed to assess the regional scale impact of LULC on climate change using Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. To obtain reliable climate trends, we applied the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) to surface air temperature and precipitation data for the period 1951–1999. We also compared the temperature trends computed from Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) datasets and from our analysis.

Accounting for tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession in mountain plant distribution models

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

AIM: To incorporate changes in alpine land cover (tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession) into species distribution model (SDM) predictions for a selection of 31 high‐elevation plants. LOCATION: Chamonix Valley, French Alps. METHODS: We fit linear mixed effects (LME) models to historical changes in forest and glacier cover and projected these trends forward to align with 21st century IPCC climate scenarios. We used a logistic function to model the probability of plant establishment in glacial forelands zones expected to become ice free between 2008 and 2051–2080.

Land management trumps the effects of climate change and elevated CO₂ on grassland functioning

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014

Grasslands cover ˜30% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many ecosystem services. Many grasslands are heavily managed to maximize these services for human benefit, but the outcome of management is anticipated to be increasingly influenced by various aspects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO₂. The relative importance of global change vs. land management on grasslands is largely unknown.

Evaluation of changes in ecological security in China’s Qinghai Lake Basin from 2000 to 2013 and the relationship to land use and climate change

Journal Articles & Books
December, 2014
China

Ecological security evaluation is an important way to identify the need for improvement in a watershed and to assess the degree of regional sustainable development. Using a driver–pressure–state–exposure–response model, a comprehensive system of ecological security indicators was developed, and it was demonstrated in a case study of the main ecological problems facing the Qinghai Lake Basin.