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World grain production is a basic indicator of overall food security at the global level. Since 1984, world grain production has expanded more slowly than the world’s population. By the early years of the 21st century, consumption has outstripped production. Could these trends herald a new "politics of scarcity"?In this article, the author sets out the evidence for his assertion that the world faces a future food security crisis.First, based on current trends, demand for grain will increase significantly over the coming years. It is predicted that the world’s population will grow by 3 billion over the next half-century. Furthermore, rising standards of living in some of the world’s most populous countries, such as India and China, are likely to see a shift towards consumption of more expensive – and more grain-intensive – foods, such as livestock.At the same time, however, the supply of grain will simultaneously decrease. This will be primarily as a result of environmental stresses and industrialisation and growth. Climate change is contributing to soil erosion and desertification of large tracts of previously arable grain-producing lands, while rises in temperature are predicted to reduce harvest yields. is reducing the world’s supply of water for irrigation. At the same time, as world demand for food has tripled, so too has the use of water for irrigation. Many major water tables that have been used to irrigate land are falling; water tables are now falling in countries that are home to more than half of the world’s people, including China, India, and the United States—the three largest grain producers.Economic growth has seen the loss of grain-growing land to non-farm uses such as housing and industry, and a shift of populations from rural to urban areas. Greater affluence has also resulted in a the conversion of land from grain production to the cultivation of more profitable agricultural produce such as vegetables and fruits.Rising food prices could be the first economic indicator to signal serious trouble in the deteriorating relationship between the global economy and the earth’s ecosystem. If these trends continue, the author warns, food insecurity may soon become the overriding concern of national governments.The chapter is taken from Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth: The Food Security Challenge in an Age of Falling Water Tables and Rising Temperatures (NY: W.W. Norton & Co., 2005)
