Resource information
This study analyzes the long-term
impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use
change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in
various countries or regions using a global computable
general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module
and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study
finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet
currently articulated or even higher national targets in
various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross
domestic product at the global level; however, the gross
domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or
regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant
land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and
pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest
that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in
food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food
supply at the global level is not as large as perceived
earlier, it would be significant in developing countries
like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural
commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve
as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant
increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices
at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the
existing targets.
