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Library Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019
Volume 10 Issue 1

Resource information

Date of publication
January 2021
Resource Language
ISBN / Resource ID
10.3390/land10010082
License of the resource

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.

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Authors and Publishers

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s)

Bhatt, Uma S.
Lader, Rick T.
Walsh, John E.
Bieniek, Peter A.
Thoman, Richard
Berman, Matthew
Borries-Strigle, Cecilia
Bulock, Kristi
Chriest, Jonathan
Hahn, Micah
Hendricks, Amy S.
Jandt, Randi
Little, Joseph
McEvoy, Daniel
Moore, Chris
Rupp, T. S.
Schmidt, Jennifer
Stevens, Eric
Strader, Heidi
Waigl, Christine
White, James
York, Alison
Ziel, Robert

Publisher(s)
Data Provider
Geographical focus