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Library The Environmental Effects of Global Changes on Northeast Central Europe in the Case of Non-Modified Agricultural Management

The Environmental Effects of Global Changes on Northeast Central Europe in the Case of Non-Modified Agricultural Management

The Environmental Effects of Global Changes on Northeast Central Europe in the Case of Non-Modified Agricultural Management

Resource information

Date of publication
June 2008
Resource Language
ISBN / Resource ID
DOAJ:11b05ecf3766474d888b4c6c53bfd765
Pages
16
License of the resource

Climate impact scenarios for agriculture usually consider yield development, landscape water balance, nutrient dynamics or the endangerment of habitats separately. Scenario results are further limited by roughly discriminated land use types at low spatial resolution or they are restricted to single sites and isolated crops. Here, we exemplify a well data based comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a drought endangered agrarian region in Northeast Germany using a 2050 climate scenario. Coherently modelled results on water balance and yields indicate that agricultural production may persist, whereas wetlands and groundwater production will be negatively affected. The average percolation rate decreases from 143 mm a-1 to 12 mm a-1, and the average yield decline broken down by crops ranges from 4% for summer wheat to 14% for potatoes (main cereals: 5%).

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