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As the key tool for land use management in China, land use planning (LUP) is characterized by the advantage of being state-led, quota-oriented, and easily monitored. Nevertheless, increasing research has doubted its effectiveness, particularly in controlling urban expansion, while few studies have empirically confirmed it. To this end, we construct a planning constraint index (PCI), supported by land use quota, for evaluating the pressure from LUP on urban expansion, and then analyze the spatial equilibrium of PCI. We also explore the spatial effects of PCI on urban expansion via the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) by collecting the spatial data of 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2016. The results show that: (1) most cities present a shortage of urban land quotas, and spatial disequilibrium exist among regions; (2) PCI has significant negative effects on urban expansion for all of the 280 cities, and spatial disparity of these effects occurs as well; (3) PCI has a stronger influence in southwest China where the economy is relatively backward. This study aims to provide a reference for land use planners and policymakers to help improve the effectiveness of LUP.
